LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion

Last Updated: 2:00 PM GMT on November 08, 2009 — Last Comment: 1:21 PM GMT on November 11, 2009

	Tropical Weather Update - Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

Posted by: LRandyB, 7:49 PM GMT on August 16, 2009

Hurricane Bill is tracking NW this afternoon. While the models (and NHC) have shifted the track further west, Bill still appears to be on track to recurve in the open Atlantic. A deep trough lies along 70W off the east coast of the US. This trough is helping to pull Bill poleward.

At this point, Bermuda needs to prepare for the effects of Bill but the New England coast should be watching this storm as well. It wouldn't take much more nudging of the track to the west for Bill to skirt Cape Cod.

Ana and Claudette are both history and thre is nothing else of interest in the tropics.

Randy

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1. AllyBama 8:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2009
Randy!!!...just what we need - a first hand eyeball on this crap!..lol

2. OGal 8:11 PM GMT on August 16, 2009
Thanks Randy, great update. I guess here in Orlando my biggest concern at this time is Bill. I just hope that ridge does build down and he goes far, far away. Hope ya'll had a great summer. When do your kids go back to school?? Ours start on the 24th. I think even the kids seem ready.

3. LakeWorthFinn 8:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2009
Good to have you back!

5. cyclonebuster 12:54 AM GMT on August 17, 2009
What's up Randy? You see my Tunnel video?

6. palmettobug53 1:38 AM GMT on August 17, 2009
Thanks for the update, Randy. Time for you guys to get back to work, huh? I figured our lull wouldn't last too much longer! How's that grandbaby doing?

7. LRandyB 12:07 PM GMT on August 17, 2009
Quoting palmettobug53: Thanks for the update, Randy. Time for you guys to get back to work, huh? I figured our lull wouldn't last too much longer! How's that grandbaby doing? Hi Bug! Yup, time to get to work! We've had a slow season so far... practically no season.. so we can't complain! The grandbaby is doing great, thanks!!!! :-)

8. oakland 11:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2009
Thanks Randy. Congrats on your newest grandbaby and hopefully you won't have to fly very often this season.

9. oldcoasty 9:50 PM GMT on August 18, 2009
Been watching a large area of circulation for last couple of days that has progressed from the Bahamas to western Cuba. Any chance of this turning into a Gulf monster?

10. LRandyB 10:00 PM GMT on August 18, 2009
Quoting oldcoasty: Been watching a large area of circulation for last couple of days that has progressed from the Bahamas to western Cuba. Any chance of this turning into a Gulf monster? That's the remains of Ana. Right now, neither NHC nor any of the models forecast that system to redevelop. At the moment, the only reason I see that it wouldn't develop is it's amazing forward speed! It would almost act to shear the system and prevent a coupling of upper level and low level circulation.

11. ChrisCone 9:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2009
I'm fairly sure there is a higher chance of Bill hitting New England than the models are depicting.

12. lawntonlookers 4:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Randy: Havent been on your blog in some time. Welcome to the addition in your family. I just thought of something on the HCH. Do they have a preflight plan that they follow exactly or do they do they determine the flight plan while in the air?

13. LRandyB 9:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Quoting lawntonlookers: Randy: Havent been on your blog in some time. Welcome to the addition in your family. I just thought of something on the HCH. Do they have a preflight plan that they follow exactly or do they do they determine the flight plan while in the air? We do file a flight plan to and from the storm. Typically our flight plans simply include a delay from surface to 10,000 feet within 150 nautical miles of the latitude/longitude point of the expected storm center. We get priority ATC handling when we are flying storms and obviously there aren't any other aircraft out there to worry about except NOAA and we keep tabs on them via radio and VOR.

14. LRandyB 11:19 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Quoting ChrisCone: I'm fairly sure there is a higher chance of Bill hitting New England than the models are depicting. That wouldn't surprise me but at the moment Bill looks to be on course to miss the east coast.

15. lawntonlookers 11:58 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Thanks Randy for the responce. My ploting of the original forecasted storm track on 11 GMT 8/19/09 shows that Bill is right on tract.

16. SunsetDancer 2:45 PM GMT on August 22, 2009
Welcome to all who visit this small island of electrons, a slender cyberspace outpost - but little more than a floating patch of seaweed upon the vast internet ocean. - And my very first attempt at blogging so please be harsh but constructive with criticism. Why the name Sunset Dancer? My tikihut, at 3 feet above sea level, faces the western setting sun on the Gulf coast of Florida. The Sunsets are spectacular, and on occasion I've had visions of grass skirted islanders making merry with that backdrop. Sunset Dancer is also the name of my first book, A three part series, Self identified as: "A Saga of Epic Adventure, Supernatural Horror, And Perilous Romance" Presently it has been withheld from trade publication in favor of presenting it online in e-book fashion. But let's get back to my tikihut. For it, my concerns are weather related. Being located in a Gulf coast velocity zone just north of the Tampa Bay region (Chasshowitzka) my immediate question for the moderator is whether the current conditions in the Gulf favor tropical developement for the forseeable future to what remains of this 2009 season. I find very little on the internet that speaks to or devotes any attention to Gulf based - homegrown if you will - systems, be they tropical storms or hurricanes. G. David Clark

17. LRandyB 3:48 PM GMT on August 22, 2009
Welcome to the blog David! And indeed how eloquent a prose you do pen.. or keyboard! :-) The typical time of year for Gulf and western Caribbean based storms in early and late season ... June-July and October-November. This time of year, the storms form commonly in the open Atlantic. When they do form in the Gulf, it's often on the tail end of fronts that had stalled and are washing out. But at the moment, there is no indication on satellite or in the long ange models of anything forming in the Gulf or Caribbean! And again, welcome to our humble abode in cyberspace!

18. seflagamma 3:50 PM GMT on August 22, 2009
Hi Randy, Been a while since I've stopped by. Hope all is well and thank you for the updates you provide! Happy Weekend to you! Gams

19. SunsetDancer 12:09 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Quoting LRandyB: Welcome to the blog David! And indeed how eloquent a prose you do pen.. or keyboard! :-) The typical time of year for Gulf and western Caribbean based storms in early and late season ... June-July and October-November. This time of year, the storms form commonly in the open Atlantic. When they do form in the Gulf, it's often on the tail end of fronts that had stalled and are washing out. But at the moment, there is no indication on satellite or in the long ange models of anything forming in the Gulf or Caribbean! And again, welcome to our humble abode in cyberspace! Randy, Thanks for the Info; the early/late season time patterns for gulf brewed storms was something I had no clue of. If you could recommend to me a "Development Patterns and Indicators of Gulf Borne Hurricanes For Idiots" I would buy it. Isaac's Storm was one of my favorite reads. G. David Clark Sunset Dancer

20. reeldrlaura 3:47 AM GMT on August 26, 2009
{{{{Randy}}}} LOVE your "prognosis" for the season! I hope we get another year of relative calm! This weekend, I will move from the beach, yes and go, INLAND......between 3 rivers, about equidistance from the Gulf and the Atlantic! Old growth Florida.....good fishing, beautiful rivers, easy access to gulf states and major cities, but 3 acres of quiet and bliss to be at home in. Bring yer fishin' pole over one day......and the wife too. It's a FABULOUS retreat!

21. code1 5:24 AM GMT on August 26, 2009
Hiyas up there!

22. GeneW 1:57 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Appreciate the info, Randy.

23. LRandyB 4:32 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting reeldrlaura: {{{{Randy}}}} LOVE your "prognosis" for the season! I hope we get another year of relative calm! This weekend, I will move from the beach, yes and go, INLAND......between 3 rivers, about equidistance from the Gulf and the Atlantic! Old growth Florida.....good fishing, beautiful rivers, easy access to gulf states and major cities, but 3 acres of quiet and bliss to be at home in. Bring yer fishin' pole over one day......and the wife too. It's a FABULOUS retreat! Thanks Laura! The next time I'm in your neck of the woods, I'll let you know!

24. palmettobug53 12:14 PM GMT on September 05, 2009
Hey, Randy! Was thinking about you guys this past week, what with Erika out there. Really glad to see her break up! I wasn't liking the model runs for a while, there. The season isn't over yet, not by a long shot. Sept can be a nasty month. We're coming up on the 20th anniversary of Hugo in another couple of weeks. My employer, MUSC, has been working for months on a Hugo retrospective re: what it was like weathering the storm at the hospital, the effects and aftermath on campus. Pictures, stories, remembrances, etc. I submitted the few pictures that I had snapped of us working to relocate our office. (The roof of our office building failed; we had a lot of water damage). There aren't too many of us left in our office that were there at the time. Myself and one other woman submitted short written recollections of what it was like to come back to work in those conditions. We were not essential personnel or volunteers who offered to stay and so were not on campus or in the hospital during the storm. Our Hugo work experiences were aftermath only. But there should be plenty of eyewitness reports. They're supposed to have this whole thing online sometime this month. When I get the link, I'll share it with you. I'm really looking forward to seeing what they have come up with.

25. ronni9 3:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2009
want to wish all the WU friends a happy holiday weekend. R9

26. LRandyB 1:28 PM GMT on September 07, 2009
Quoting palmettobug53: Hey, Randy! Was thinking about you guys this past week, what with Erika out there. Really glad to see her break up! I wasn't liking the model runs for a while, there. The season isn't over yet, not by a long shot. Sept can be a nasty month. We're coming up on the 20th anniversary of Hugo in another couple of weeks. My employer, MUSC, has been working for months on a Hugo retrospective re: what it was like weathering the storm at the hospital, the effects and aftermath on campus. Pictures, stories, remembrances, etc. I submitted the few pictures that I had snapped of us working to relocate our office. (The roof of our office building failed; we had a lot of water damage). There aren't too many of us left in our office that were there at the time. Myself and one other woman submitted short written recollections of what it was like to come back to work in those conditions. We were not essential personnel or volunteers who offered to stay and so were not on campus or in the hospital during the storm. Our Hugo work experiences were aftermath only. But there should be plenty of eyewitness reports. They're supposed to have this whole thing online sometime this month. When I get the link, I'll share it with you. I'm really looking forward to seeing what they have come up with. Hey Bug! Thanks! I'd appreciate that!! And I'm sure a lot of folks here on WU would like to see it to!

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