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Last Updated: 2:58 AM GMT on November 22, 2009
— Last Comment: 2:54 AM GMT on November 20, 2009
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=========================================================================================== == Local Triad Weather Information == =========================================================================================== Radar:   =========================================================================================== == Weather Forecast for Selected Cities Across the Triad == =========================================================================================== ---- Greensboro ---- Winston-Salem ---- High Point ---- Burlington ---- Lexington ---- Asheboro ---- Reidsville ---- =========================================================================================== Triad Area Forecast:  _  =========================================================================================== == Forecast Models == =========================================================================================== RUC Model ---- (Temperature) ---- (Precipitation) ---- (Precip Type) NAM Model ---- (Temperature) ---- (Precipitation) ---- (Precip Type) GFS Model ---- (Temperature) ---- (Precipitation) ---- (Precip Type) =========================================================================================== == Other Useful Links == =========================================================================================== -- Regional Radar Loop -- -- Regional Visible Satellite Loop -- -- National Hurricane Center -- -- Storm Prediction Center -- -- Climate Prediction Center -- -- Hydrometeorological Prediction Center -- -- NC Drought Monitor -- -- SC Drought Monitor -- =========================================================================================== == The Four Seasons in NC/SC (by geographical section) == =========================================================================================== Mountains: The mountains typically have Springtime and Summertime storms just like anyone else, but the geography of this area makes it rather interesting, because many times these storms will form in the valleys and they cannot physically move anywhere else, so they end up dumping lots of rain in the same area, which can lead to flash flooding. Heat waves are very rare for the mountains, simply because of the high elevation (most peaks are well over 4,000ft). Fall Colors are very beautiful up here in October, once again because of the geography (for scenic overlooks) and cooler climate. Winter can be pretty harsh to say the least. On average, this area tends to receive well over 20 inches of snow every season, and areas around Avery and Watauga Counties (which have more west-facing slopes) receive more than 40 inches a season! Sometimes though, areas can receive much more than that! Mt. Mitchell (highest peak on the East Coast) received 50 inches of snow from a blizzard in 1993, and that was just from one storm! Piedmont: The Piedmont of NC/SC also experiences storms in the Spring and Summer. However, unlike the mountains, the Piedmont is not as mountainous, and is relatively flat, with the exception of the Uwharrie mountains in and around Montgomery County, so storms have a tendency to move across the region more freely. Heat Waves can plague this region as well. Fall weather is usually mild, with showers and storms, but not as many as in the Spring and Summer. Fall colors usually peak around the end of October. Hurricanes are rare in this area, but hurricane remnants are fairly common, and can cause gusty winds, tropical downpours, and scattered weak tornadoes. Winter is not as harsh as in the mountains, but can still pack a punch when a phenomenon called the Appalachian Wedge sets up across the region, which funnels in cold air from the north and sets the stage for Winter weather. This cold wedge of air is more prominent in the Piedmont of NC than in the Piedmont of SC. When storm systems from the GOM enter the Carolinas during an Appalachian Wedge setup, this usually spells either snow or ice (depending on the conditions). On average, the NC Piedmont receives about 12 inches of snow a season, while the SC Piedmont receives only about 4 inches. Coastal Plains: The Coastal Plains of NC/SC experience storms in the Spring and Summer as well, and this area (as you can guess by the second half of the name) is very flat, so there are no mountains or hills to hinder their growth and/or movement. This area typically has the most severe weather as well, that includes dangerous lightning, hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. Heat waves are a common occurrence as well. Areas around Florence SC and Fayetteville NC usually are the hottest locations in the Carolinas; it's not that uncommon for these areas to soar up over 100F during the Summer. Fall is usually not as hot and severe, unless a hurricane moves through, which can cause torrential rain, gusty winds, and numerous tornadoes all across the region! Fall colors are not as brilliant as in the mountains and Piedmont, simply because there are not as many scenic overlooks, and there are not as many deciduous trees. Pine trees are the majority in the Coastal Plains. Winter is not too harsh, except for the Raleigh Area, which tends to see more Winter weather than the rest of the Coastal Plains. A snowstorm is a rare occurrence (especially in eastern SC), and the average snowfall in this region only averages around 6 inches, but every now and then there might be enough cold air and moisture to produce a significant snow and/or ice storm in this region. Outer Banks: This Outer Banks are a bit unusual when it comes to comparing its weather to the other regions in the Carolinas. You would expect Spring and Summer to be pretty hot and stormy, but it's quite the opposite! Because of the constant cool sea-breeze off of the ocean and sounds, the Outer Banks rarely have Spring and Summertime heat waves, and even though storms do occur down here, they are usually not as strong as those a bit further inland typically are. Fall is a dangerous time for these barrier islands, primarily because of hurricanes, because these shallow and fragile islands jut out into the Atlantic and are commonly in the path of hurricanes as they skirt up the coast. Another threat, not as serious as hurricanes, but still worthy of respect, are nor'easters. These storms have similar characteristics of hurricanes, but are cold in nature, whereas hurricanes are warm in nature. In Winter, nor'easters can actually cause blizzard conditions along the Outer Banks, but this is rare. In fact, on average, the Outer Banks receive only a few inches of snow every season. =========================================================================================== == Effects of El-Nino in Winter == =========================================================================================== Perhaps the most influential variable in forecasting and predicting the severity of this upcoming Winter season is El-Nino, which is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe (as defined by NOAA). According to the latest outlook, it appears that El-Nino will be intensifying through Autumn and should prevail through most of the Winter months. Of course, many other variables come into play when forecasting Winter weather, and every season is different, but El-Nino Winters on average are generally cooler and snowier in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the Northeast and Midwest are typically warmer and drier.   Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks. SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583). =========================================================================================== == My Winter 2009-2010 Forecast for the Eastern CONUS (primarily the states east of the Mississippi) == ===========================================================================================  _ (*** click on the maps to view them in detail ***) Precipitation: I am expecting a fairly strong flow of storms out of the Gulf of Mexico, and coupled with strong CAD east of the central and southern Appalachians, expect regular occurrences of snow and ice from Atlanta to Boston throughout the season, especially in January, February, and early March. Areas just to the west of the Appalachians should expect near normal Winter weather activity throughout the entire season. However, the Midwest/Great Lakes region will have less than normal Winter weather activity, and even though I do predict there will be slightly above normal LES during the first half of the season (when ENSO is less pronounced), the second half of Winter will be slightly dry, and even drier in the Upper Midwest. Temperature: Temperatures across the Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic, and southern Florida will be slightly cooler than average, and much cooler temperatures will be felt in the Deep South and the Southeast coastline. However, for the first half of Winter, the Southeast will have slightly above normal temperatures. The Northeast and Ohio River valley will see near normal temperatures throughout the Winter months, while the Upper Great Lakes region will be warmer than average for most of the season, with the exception of a short period of cooler temperatures during the first half of Winter. ===========================================================================================
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