215 
abio10 pgtw 211800
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/211800z-221800znov2009//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 10.2s 60.3e,
approximately 625 nm east-northeast of Madagascar. Animated water
vapor imagery shows increased convection over an ill-defined low
level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the system
is under the divergent northwest quadrant of an anticyclone. A 211423
coriolis microwave image supports a consolidating trend of the
convective bands that are mostly on the western side of the LLCC.
Most available numeric models develop the system into a significant
tropical cyclone by tau 72. Maximum sustained surface winds,
extrapolated  from a 210605z ascat pass, are estimated at 15 to 20
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is poor.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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